"Expect incumbent groups to attack disruptors when their pie shrinks The speaker identifies a repeatable pattern: when a powerful group's economic share is threatened, it retaliates against adjacent factions — not the root cause — because that is where it has leverage. Democrats attacked Republicans with wokeness and attacked tech companies with regulation; Republicans attacked Democrats with Trump and attacked China with tariffs. He states this as a structural dynamic: "their pie was shrinking for different reasons but their pie was shrinking and they begin fighting." Anticipating this lets you predict regulatory crackdowns, culture wars, and trade wars by first identifying whose economic base is under pressure. Source: Balaji Srinivasan, Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, Unknown Episode"