"Distinguish emotional conviction from analytical conviction In 2009, Raoul Pal remained stubbornly short equity markets not because his models said so — they had already bottomed and were recovering — but because he emotionally needed the financial system to collapse further to validate his worldview. He now draws a sharp distinction: 'That's very different — being early or getting a trade wrong — versus the emotional overwriting of your macro framework.' A position held because the risk-reward still analytically works is entirely different from one held because you cannot bear to be wrong. Anyone facing a major decision can apply this test: am I holding this view because the evidence still supports it, or because admitting error is too painful? Source: Raoul Pal, Real Vision, Best and Worst Trades with Raoul Pal"