"Recognize the hidden game beneath the obvious trade During the 1998 Asian financial crisis, Raoul Pal watched Lewis Bacon of Moore Capital appear to execute a messy, low-return short of South African stocks — only to later learn the stock trade was merely a vehicle to short the South African financial rand at a fraction of the borrowing cost everyone else faced, generating a 58% return instead of the 8% Raoul had calculated. Bacon had found a regulatory and structural workaround that 'nobody else had figured out,' making the obvious-looking trade a disguise for a completely different position. Before assuming you understand what a sophisticated actor is doing, ask what second-order constraint — funding cost, regulation, liquidity — they may be solving that you haven't even identified yet. Source: Raoul Pal, Real Vision, Best and Worst Trades with Raoul Pal"