"Read extreme fear as a contrarian signal James observes that coming into a potential Middle East escalation, the VIX had already been elevated for months and the most popular options strike was a $20,000 put — meaning the crowd was already heavily hedged. He notes "the fear and greed index is extreme fear for the last two months" and concludes that "the market always goes to max pain," which in this case would be a sharp upside move that squeezes the bears. When you can quantify that the majority is already positioned for disaster, the risk-reward tilts toward the scenario most people are unprepared for. Source: James Van Stratten, The Bitcoin Layer, Bitcoin Markets Analysis"